During the 1950s and 1960s, if I remember correctly, this term "brain drain" was used primarily to refer to the one-way migration of scientists and professionals from Europe, primarily from the United Kingdom, to the USA. At that time the US economy was booming, research funds both in academia and in industry were bountiful and physicians were leaving the National Health Service for the greener pastures of private practice American style. In the UK, especially in the early 1950s, life was still austere, food and clothing rationing did not end until 1954 and the bomb damage from the blitz of London and other British cities still had not been repaired. No wonder that so many academics, scientists, engineers and other professionals left for the USA.
When one looks over the list of SUGUNA members or attends an annual meeting and listens to SUGUNA members relate their interests and work, one can not help being struck by the significant "brain drain" that has occurred from Australia to the USA. So many individuals with diverse talents, originally educated at the University of Sydney and other Australian universities, have come to the USA; some for further training or experience, some on exchange programs, some for family or personal reasons and many for a variety of other reasons. The bottom line is that we have chosen to stay. Undoubtedly the USA offered more opportunities and provided a welcoming environment. It would be interesting to conduct a survey to find out what really motivated SUGUNA members to leave beautiful Sydney for different cities (like Wichita, Kansas!) in the USA. Until we gather hard data you will have to come to our annual meeting and find out for yourself.
We look forward to seeing you at Bellingham on the campus of Western Washington University for our annual meeting from August 15-18, 1996. We need volunteer SUGUNA members to speak about their interests, work or hobbies, science or humanities. That is what makes the program so fascinating. Please phone, fax, write or e-mail your Executive Director and let me know on what topic you will speak. [Dr. E. Newbrun, 1823 8th Ave., San Francisco, CA 94122; phone & fax (415) 731-7421; [email protected]] Remember, one volunteer is worth more than ten picked persons, but if we don't get enough volunteers we will just have to call on you. Looking forward to seeing you all this summer.
Finally, a note about future meeting sites. SUGUNA meetings have been held mostly in the Northwest of the USA and Canada, sites that are scenic and offer opportunities for recreation as well as camaraderie. However we realize that they may not be convenient for our East coast, Southern and Midwestern members. If you have a favorite place in mind please research the facilities and come to our next meeting with information as to space, costs, etc. and be prepared to serve as the host coordinator.
Ernest Newbrun
We have heard from the Acting Vice Chancellor of the Uni versity of Sydney, Derek Anderson, that he will be arriving in Bellingham on August 14 to join us for SUGUNA '96. He will make the annual presentation on the state of the University. Dave Coggins, Ernie Newbrun and I are working hard to arrange the usual eclectic group of speakers to inform and entertain. We are looking for members willing to share their research, experiences, hobbies, etc. with the group. If you are prepared to present at SUGUNA '96, please contact us. The success of the meeting depends on your active participation.
Accommodations at Edens Hall are ideal for your stay in Bellingham. Situated on Western Washington University's beautiful campus, you will be close to the meeting room and to the sites of evening festivities. Each bedroom shares a bathroom ensuite with the adjoining bedroom. This arrangement is just like a hotel suite where the doors are lockable from each side to maintain privacy. All in all, great accommodations at a very reasonable price.
Please make certain that you send your meeting registration form to the address printed on the form rather than to the membership address printed in the return address area of the newsletter mailing page. This will ensure that the forms arrive at the correct location.
I look forward to seeing you in beautiful Bellingham.
June P. Ross
What a difference a year makes! During 1994 we saw Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan increase US interest rates almost on a regular basis even though there was no discernible sign of higher in�ation. This created one of the gloomiest bond markets in many people's mind as the percentage of increases was greater than anyone had experienced since 1929. In 1995 we saw almost the reverse-interest rates on paper with two to thirty year maturities dropped sharply. Alan Greenspan still has not decreased short term rates signi�cantly, and in�ation is still low! Many forecasters expected the Fed Chairman to act last December and lower short-term rates by H% or more. Finally.
Are we heading for recession? Remember candidate Bill Clinton's call to his followers: "It's the economy stupid!" President Clinton knows that his chances for reelection will improve if we do not head into a recession; however, there are signs that the economy is slowing. New home starts have been down substantially and have only recently experienced a small positive upturn, new car sales are slow and consumer spending over the recently concluded holiday season was not robust. Since consumer spending represents about 80% of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and since consumer debt levels are at their historical all time highs, the administration will be hoping for more than lower interest rates. Spearheaded by strident attacks on US corporations by Labor Secretary Reich, they are leaving no stone unturned in their attempts to increase wages. The in�ationary pressure that could result will present challenges to the economy as the government tinkers with ways to keep the GDP from falling.
What to do with lower interest rates? Consider re�nancing your mortgage if you have not done so already. Today many �nancial institutions are making it easy to re�nance your mortgage and offer ten, �fteen and thirty year terms. While the �nancial institutions may make convincing overtures to use their adjustable rate mortgages, be cautious and use 1994 as a bad example about what happens when short term interest rates rise. Most adjustable rate mortgages increased over 2% in one year and some are still increasing their rates.
If you like bonds, consider purchasing municipal tax free bonds. Because of the concerns over a �at tax, municipal bond prices have not appreciated the same way that US Treasury bonds have. Today a tax-free interest rate is approximately 88% the rate of a taxable bond. That means that if you are in a 12% tax bracket you break even. It does not seem plausible that we will see a 12% tax bracket. The extra after-tax yield is your gain. Will we see a �at tax? Since most tax revenue comes from the higher tax brackets, I really do not see the US Government substantially reducing its income. And what do you do about two of the most popular deductions: mortgage interest and charitable gifts? Would our politicians really want to jeopardize the housing market and, more importantly, the most ef�cient means to deliver social services to the needy of our population? The �at tax sounds politically correct and that's about it.
Will the stock market keep rising? Money is �owing into the US stock market from everywhere: 401K and other retirement plans, long term investors, speculators and overseas investors. The overseas investments represent an extremely interesting scenario because if you take the low US dollar value versus the German mark and Japanese yen, these overseas investors had the potential for two types of appreciation: the US stock and bond markets and the currency appreciation. Now that both of these have appreciated, these investors will be considering the length of time they wish to stay committed to their US investments. Do you remember when short-term Australian interest rates were very high and the Australian dollar was at a low against the US dollar? Having the potential to earn appreciation twice from the same investment can make for a healthy return on your money.
As with any investment, know the whys and whats of the investments. As I discussed at last year's SUGUNA meeting in Whistler, a great track record does not always reveal the hidden risks.
William Lockwood
Vice-President Investments
Piper Jaffray
Portland, Oregon
Dues are only $25 and include an original SUGUNA T-shirt. Gillian is busy designing the shirts for 1996 and needs to have you send in your dues so she will know how many to make.
If you have a question about mem bership, SUGUNA secretary/treasurer Gillian Beattie can help you. Her e-mail address is: [email protected] and her mailing address is in the return address area of this newsletter.
Questions of a policy nature or really, really important other things should be directed to Executive Director Ernest Newbrun. His e-mail address is: [email protected] and his mailing address is 1690 Woodside Road, Suite 107, Redwood City, CA 94061.
Should you wish to make suggestions of an editorial nature to Gerry Bassell the newsletter editor, he can be reached at [email protected] or snail mail at 6505 E Central Ave., Suite 239, Wichita, KS 67206-1924.
Ron Bracewell, the Lewis M. Terman Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering at Stanford University, will be remembered by attendees at SUGUNA '94 (Stanford) for driving Stanford computer science Professor Vaughan Pratt crazy during the infamous prime number bidding sequence that highlighted the auction of a signed copy of Schindler's List . Bracewell has recently been honored by being asked to deliver the Bunyan lecture and hosting a full-day symposium.
The Bunyan lecture is named for James T. Bunyan who worked at the Hoover Institution and whose will speci�ed that his accumulated savings endow lectures that "inquire into man's changing vision of the cosmos and of human destiny as revealed in the latest discoveries in the �elds of astronomy and space exploration." Although the 16-year-old eponymous lecture has usually been delivered by scientists from other institutions such as Carl Sagan (Cornell), Philip Morrison (MIT), and Kip Thorne (Caltech), Ron Bracewell is extremely well quali�ed for the honor bestowed on him by colleagues in the astronomy program at Stanford. As a radio astronomer, Bracewell developed a method for reconstructing astronomical images that was so powerful that it was later used in medical CAT scanning. In the 1970s, he devised a technique for detecting planets around distant suns that has now been revived and is being developed with NASA support.
Ron's Bunyan lecture was entitled The Destiny of Man , a title taken from the wording of the original bequest, and dealt with a range of predictions concerning man's future. Some predictions were optimistic in nature and some pessimistic. As Bracewell said to a reporter for the Stanford Report , "...we don't know where we are going, but there are a number of people who have views...if you look at the time scale of things that could happen, and the sequence in which they will happen. In that way you can determine that a number of things that ought to happen never will."
Bracewell also addressed some developmental aspects of mankind compared with the possibilities if life exists elsewhere in the universe. It would be expected, for example, that there would be a number of planets with intelligent creatures at a stage of development that mankind reached a million years ago. "On the other hand, imagine a community that had reached our [present] stage of development a million years ago. All physics and chemistry will essentially be known. Anything that is controllable will be controlled. So you can imagine space engineering on a colossal scale taking place."
As Ron approaches his 75th birthday, SUGUNA members join the Stanford faculty in congratulating Ron on his achievements.
GMB
Last year, 1995, was a momentous one for the University of Sydney.
Princes, Prime Ministers, Mountaineers - all made it to the University of Sydney in 1995!
In an interview with The University of Sydney News , Professor Don McNicol recalled some of the milestones of his administration.